Race Profile: Missouri

Senator Jim Talent took this seat when he defeated Sen. Jean Carnahan, widow of popular former Gov. Mel Carnahan in 2002. Carnahan was appointed to the seat in 2000 as part of a dubious, and probably illegal, deal in which Mel Carnahan's replacement, Gov. Roger Wilson, told voters that he would appoint Jean to fill the seat if her dead husband won the election. As a tribute to their beloved Governor, Missouri elected the corpse. Two years later, Talent squeaked by Jean to win the seat for the remainder of the term.

Since taking his seat, Talent has built upon his conservative record in the House. Even so, he has taken up leadership roles on health care policy and energy by proposing common sense legislation. His Small Business Health Fairness Act would allow small businessmen to perchace health care plans for themselves and their employees through their trade associations. He has also proposed legislation that would reduce America's dependence on foreign fuel.

Potential challengers include Claire McCaskill, the State Auditor, and former Lt. Governor Joe Maxwell. McCaskill lost the 2004 Governor's race to Secretary of State Matt Blunt. While an opponent of gay marriage, her positions on abortion, gun control, and religious freedom are not in line with the increasingly conservative state. Joe Maxwell is in a similar position, and refers to the majority of his state as the "radical right".

This state is a perfect example of why the Democrats have been moving toward permanent minority status. While the Democrats are moving further left, the state is moving further right. Normally competitive, Missouri saw an early end to advertising in the 2004 Presidential campaign as Kerry realized during the summer that his extremist positions were too far out of cync with the voters here. The Democrat's candidate for Senate, Nancy Farmer, suffered a similar fate. Early on, Democrats hoped that they could unseat incumbent Kit Bond, but when Democrats found that her campaign's spending wasn't moving the polls, they quickly abandoned the race.

Democrats must find a candidate whose social positions are at least more muted, if not more moderate, if they hope to make this seat competitive. Talent's personal wealth, the state's continuing move right, and the national Party's hesitation to take a risk on directing funds toward this race when there are more competitive seats out there make it an unattractive race for Democrats. While Democrats have to start pulling a few upsets, this seems like an unlikely place to start. Call this race "Likely Republican", but it could quickly move into "Solid Republican" unless the Democrats can come up with a viable candidate quickly.