Thanks George

As conservatives - real conservatives, not President Bush - lament the selection of an unqualified, untested, (judicially) unknown White House Counsel Harriet Miers, Gary Miller over at KvM begins the discussion of just how much of a political disaster this is for the Republicans who will face voters next year. When people who were never involved in politics before started taking time out of their busy lives to drop leaflets, make phone calls, and stuff envelopes for Governor/President Bush, they did so based largely on his campaign promise to select Supreme Court Justices in the mold of Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. So the question is, which one is Harriet Miers, Scalia or Thomas?

Prior to this nomination, the Democrats has about as much chance of retaking the Senate as President Bush had of translating Aristotle's Metaphysics from the Greek. Now, though, the Democrats have gone from having zero chance to having about a 50% chance depending on just how badly things go on the Roberts Court.

Here's a broader look at the races that have changed as a result of the nomination:

1. Pennsylvania - Let there be no doubt that the blame for this selection rests squarely on the shoulders of "conservative hero" Rick Santorum. During the primary, Santorum cut ads for Specter and threatened Toomey backers, knowing full well that Sen. Specter would be the problem that he turned out to be. During the first round of questioning for Judge Roberts, Specter spent 28 of his 30 minutes promoting his pro-abortion litmus test. That is one of the reasons that the President felt the need to steer clear of well qualified, well established, well known judicial conservatives. Santorum was in trouble before this selection. Now? Stick a fork in him, he's done, and deservedly so. Lean Democrat to Safe Democrat.
2. Ohio - The President's selection shows just how damaging the G-14 agreement was. Rather than needing 50 votes + the Vice President, POTUS needed 60. Thanks Mike! Since the Democrats will likely nominate a far left Kos Kandidate, DeWine's not dead, but he's still very sick. Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.
3. Minnesota - Rep. Mark Kennedy sadly looks to be one of the innocent victims of this disaster. Western neighbor Sen. John Thune has been cautious in his comments, but he will not face the voters for another five years. Through no fault of his own, Kennedy's chances have been severely, if not fatally, damaged by the pick. In a state that's as purple as they come, every voter counts. In 2004, 24% of voters based their votes on "Moral Values". POTUS carried them 77-21. With the exception of terrorism, that was the most decisive issue in favor of the President. If the 24% drops to 20%, the Democrats will save a seat that should have been ours'. Toss-up to Likely Democrat.
4. Missouri - Sen. Jim Talent, a strong conservative, expressed trust in the President but did say that her record needs to be thoroughly vetted. Should he determine that she would not apply consistent jurisprudence, he may vote against her. State Auditor Claire McCaskill declared her candidacy in rural Houston, MO, an attempt to reach out to voters who vote Republican on values issues. With values issues neutralized, these voters are more likely to either stay home or, worse, vote on farm subsidies. Talent was a heavy favorite. That is no longer the case. Likely Republican to Lean Republican/Toss-up.
5. West Virginia - Sen. Dole had already blown this one, first by going after a candidate who could not capitalize on the very values issues that have shifted the state into the Republican column at the Presidential level, then by not getting her. Hopefully Gale Catlett will challenge Sen. Byrd. Even if he does, voters now see that the difference between the parties on social issues is not sufficient to give up on Senator Pork. Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat.
6. Montana - Sen. Conrad Burns is a good conservative, but it's not his social conservatism - save guns - that got him to Washington. The nomination hurts Burns on the margins, but in a state as small as his, any revolt is a bad thing. Likely Republican to Likely/Lean Republican.
7. Nebraska - Incumbents seldom lose. When they do, it's usually the perfect storm of red state/blue Senator or blue Senator/red state, a good candidate, and Presidential popularity/unpopularity. The first criterion is fine. Dole blew the second, making Nelson's reelection prospects better than they needed to be. Now the President has let down the voters who make Nebraska beat red. Republicans had a fair chance before the nomination. That is no longer the case. Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.
8. Florida - Rep. Katherine Harris was in bad shape before Miers. Now she's done. The big split in the last Senate race was between those who attended church services weekly or more and those who did not. Martinez won a squeaker on the strength of those who attended weekly or more, 36% of voters, by a 2:1 margin. Will a Presidential capitulation on the most important issue to those voters reduce their proportion of voters by 10%? Count on it. Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat.
9. Michigan - Rev. Keith Butler is a third-tier candidate. If he was to have any chance against Sen. Stabenow, he had to win union members on social issues. With the Miers choice, that won't happen. Likely Democrat to Safe Democrat.
10. Arizona - Sen. Kyl won't likely lose. Even with a Democrat Governor, the state is deep red and not changing any time soon. With the issue of judicial tyranny on issues like abortion and gay marriage, though, this definitely hurts Kyl's ability to reach out to Hispanics on values issues. Kyl has a chance to save this opportunity by holding Miers' feet to the fire during the confirmation hearings and voting against her if she fails to convince conservatives that she is not in the mold of justices Scalia and Thomas.

James Carville often says, "If you see your opponent drowning, throw the son of a bitch an anvil." Instead, the President threw Schumer & Co. a lifeline.