Race Profile: Rhode Island

RINO Lincoln Chafee took this seat as a gift from Governor Lincoln Almond when his father,, Sen. John Chafee, died in 1999. The Chafee name went way back in Rhode Island, including John's service as Governor and a member of the House of Representatives. Lincoln was running for his father's seat at the time of the death and likely would have lost but for the advantages of incumbency and the desire of Rhode Islanders to pay tribute to his father. Chafee, a former cocaine user, has been a bane to Republicans since his election, siding with Democrats on nearly every issue.

Chafee's seat is ripe for the picking, but he may first have to get by a primary challenge. Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey is extremely popular, especially among conservatives, for cleaning up the state's third largest city. Although the state has a semi-open primary, meaning that independents can vote in primaries, voters who have previously voted in a party primary must sign a statement disaffiliating themselves with the party in whose primary they voted if they wish to vote in the other party's primary. A contested Democratic primary for Governor in 2002, therefore, significantly reduced the pool of independents, and the Republican Primary was won with less than 20,000 votes because of anemic Republican registration.

Plenty of Democrats will take a look at this race, including the state's Congressional Democrats. Rep. Langevin, a paraplegic who is pro-life but vocally supports stem-cell research, would be an interesting choice, not least because his largely pro-life voting record would cut off pro-abortion funding and may even direct it toward Chafee. Rep. Patrick Kennedy would be a tough challenger, more because he's a Kennedy in New England than any record of accomplishment. Kennedy is considered a dim bulb, which could make for totally laughable debates with Chafee, as the moderator would have to dumb down the questions for both candidates.

Rhode Island is deep blue, but Governor Carcieri proved that it is possible for a conservative Republican to get elected statewide. All things being equal, a Democrat who doesn't cost himself the race would likely defeat Chafee, but Chafee is by no means assured of the nomination. The best case scenario for Republicans is a Laffey-Kennedy race, as the down to earth, up to the challenge Republican is an excellent campaigner and a strong conservative without turning off the moderate voters he would need to win. Pretty much any combination of candidates puts this race in the "Lean Democrat" category, but Laffey v. Kennedy, especially with a heavy debate schedule, could become a toss-up.