The Hokey Pokey, PA Style

Ya put the right man in, ya take the wrong chick in, you get the donors involved and ya shake em all about. Ya do the hokey pokey and ya turn the race around, and that's what it's all about.

Two days after entering the race, former Treasurer Barbara Hafer has bowed out. Hafer's exit was immediately followed by Treasurer Bob Casey's entry. The Rendell Mafia maneuver is sure to anger radical feminazis who don't like any candidate who doesn't support a doctor's right to kill a child during birth. Liberal idealogues are flipping out, Democratic partisans are smiling, and Sen. Mudd looks like a deer in headlights.

With all due respect to Minnesota, this is the marquis match-up of 2006. Sen. Mudd enters the slight favorite as the incumbent, but his transgressions have his base debating whether it should back him. Conservatives are split three ways on Mudd. A majority seem willing to bite the bullet, but the rest either plan to stay home or back his opponent. (It's no secret where I come down on this, as my contribution to Casey, Jr. will show up on the next FEC report. While no tears will be shed over a Chafee loss, Casey will be the only Democrat this blogger endorses in 2006.)

Besides POed conservatives, most analysts think three groups will determine the outcome. The first of these groups is pro-life Democrats. Sen. Mudd, long considered a social conservative hero, lost much of his credibility with social conservatives with his endorsement of Specter last year. Casey's pro-life position puts him in position to capitalize on this weakness and bring pro-life Democrats, many of whom are Catholics who are more liberal on social justice issues, home to the Democratic Party. If Casey succeeds in doing this, other groups are meaningless and he wins the election.

The next group that will be crucial is the socially liberal, economically right of center Philadelphia suburbs. Some think that Casey's pro-life, pro-gun stances could be enough to have these voters, who are moving leftward, back into Mudd's camp. Assuming that Republicans, controlling both the Congress and the White House, do what they were elected to do and govern as conservatives, this scenario is unlikely. Look for Casey to fall just a few points shy of Ed Rendell in the Philadelphia suburbs.

Finally, some are concerned about Casey's positions costing him votes in Philadelphia itself. In spite of his transgressions, the left still considers Mudd far right. Philadelphia voters, dead and alive, guilty and not guilty, will turn out heavily for Rendell, and while they're there do what they can to dump Mudd.

Mudd's a very slight favorite, but that status could change very quickly.