Race Profile: Montana

Sen. Conrad Burns won this seat in 1988 to become only the second Republican Senator in state history. Burns survived a scare in 2000 against now Governor-elect Brian Schweitzer. Having learned his lesson in 2000, Burns already has over $600,000 in the bank and is ready for a challenge.

Few states have a Senator who has better managed to represent it than Montana has in Conrad Burns. As a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Burns has brought home the bacon on education and health care by bringing investment to the state even while continuing to try to cut government waste. As Chairman of the Interior Appropriations subcommittee, he has successfully worked to preserve Montana's natural resources at a time when many Western states have struggled to do the same. Further, his support of gun rights, while viewed by the mainstream media as "extreme", fits perfectly with Second Amendment supporters in the state.
Democrats hope to recruit State Attorney General Mike McGrath for the race. His popularity within the state led to his unchallenged reeelction in 2004. McGrath's office has focused heavily on victims' rights and defending the state's environmental protection laws. He has also used his position to strengthen his relationship with native Americans, including his negotiation of an agreement with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe. Even so, he has yet to be forced to debate issues of national policy instead of the cream-puff, we can all get along, issues that he has dealt with as state Attorney General.

President Bush routed Senator Kerry, winning by over 20 points. At the same time, however, Democrats took the Governor's mansion and both houses of the state legislature. The state is generally libertarian. In the west, the focus on social libertarianism makes it friendly territory for Dems. The eastern part of the state, however, is more of the "from my cold dead hands" mentality that makes it difficult for Democrats to win at the federal level. On balance, gun control reigns supreme and gives Republicans an edge when all other things are equal. Further, a small state like Montana doesn't come by clout easily, and a fourth-term Majority Senator could do far more for the state than a freshman member of the left-wing minority.

This will be as much a fight between the NRA and the Sierra Club as between Burns and his opponent. If McGrath gets in, this race leans Republican. If not, Democrats will have a tough time finding a willing candidate who can seriously challenge Burns. Ambitious Democrats may also be afraid to risk jobs they have already won to challenge a Republican who will have the backing of the interest group with the greatest influence in the state.