Last in Seniority

On Monday, Rep. Chris van Hollen announced on Monday that he will not seek the Senate seat being vacated by long-time Senator Paul Sarbanes. The announcement leaves two others, Rep. Ben Cardin and former Rep./former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume. While a three-way race would have split the white vote and opened the door for Mfume, a two-way race will be extremely difficult for him. Thus far, Cardin is clobbering Mfume in money and endorsements.

The Democrat Party is well aware of Mfume's problems and will do everything possible to ensure a Cardin nomination. While Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a strong candidate, Maryland is deep blue. Everything would have to go perfectly for Steele if he is to have a chance. The chances of that are slim to none with at least two Supreme Court nomination fights between now and then. Maryland's social liberalism will make mobilizing against any Republican easy. Further, the Democrats will want to put away any potentially vulnerable seats with their current deficit.

Van Hollen's announcement comes as a disappointment to Republicans, who had hoped to make this one a race. Barring unforeseen consequences, Cardin will walk all over Mfume in the Primary and will win election to the Senate fairly easily. It appears as though Marylanders will concern themselves more with ideology than influence. Rather than elect a rising star in the GOP, they will elect Ben Cardin, who will rank 100th in seniority.