Scarborough Out; Foley Still Thinking About It

Former Rep. Joe Scarborough has passed on the chance to challenge Rep. Katherine Harris in the Republican Senate primary in Florida. Scarborough follows Florida House Speaker Allan Bense in being recruited only to decline the opportunity.

Rep. Mark Foley continues to consider a bid, but had for good reason initially been ignored by the establishment, especially the Bush brothers. Foley had just a rating of just 68 from the ACU in 2004, departing from the Party base on such issues as marriage, abortion, and gun control. A Foley candidacy would severely, perhaps permanently, damage an emerging Republican majority in Florida. Back-to-back Presidential wins and the election of Mel Martinez have been made possible by mammoth conservative turnout. A Foley candidacy could destroy the coalition that has made the GOP dominant in the state.

The effort first to dissuade Harris from the race and second to recruit a challenger were not without merit. Polls have consistently shown Harris trailing Nelson badly in trial runs, and she surely was not the best candidate at the beginning of the year, or even when she entered. Now, though, it is time to unify behind Harris.

There is a fine line between attempting to recruit the best candidate and fatally damaging the campaign of the likely nominee. Republicans have thus far taken two high-profile whiffs on possible challengers in Bense and Scarborough. The attempts were good faith efforts to find the best challengers (unlike in New York, where the NY GOP has made a good faith effort to find the most liberal challengers, even ones who can't speak without a script). Both would have been underdogs in the primary but would surely have been stronger general election candidates.

Having missed those opportunities, the Republican Party risks doing even more damage to Harris's candidacy with future attempts to recruit a different candidate. Any such candidate would clearly have been dragged into the race and could not be taken seriously by the voters. Instead, they would just demonstrate a lack of Party support for the only conservative who is currently viable. Rep. Harris has an uphill fight, but is viable. That viability, however, will erode, along with GOP hopes, if the Republican Party does not unify behind her candidacy now.