Kyl in the Driver's Seat

Roll Call today reported that Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) led Democrat Party Chair and likely challenger Jim Pederson 54-23 in an NRSC poll conducted March 1-5. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say, "once likely challenger". Kyl is well-liked in Arizona, but could have faced a strong challenge from Gov. Janet Napolitano (D). Deciding that she'd rather coast to reelection as an executive instead of taking a 50-50 chance at joining a slimming Senate Minority, Napolitino took a pass on the race. If, if, these numbers are confirmed by independent sources, Pederson could think better of it and stay out of the race.

Sen. Kyl is the none-troublemaking Senator from Arizona and is first in line to replace Sen. Specter should his cancer prevent him from finishing his term as Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Any Democrat would be hard-pressed to justify dumping a powerful member of the majority for a freshman member of a dwindling minority. After some hope in 2004, Sen. Kerry bailed on the state, realizing that he was persona non grata in Barry Goldwater's home state. With Howard Dean as DNC Chair, any Democrat will have to distance himself from the establishment. As Sen. Daschle found out, though, this is easier said than done. In addition to the Senator's popularity and Dean being, well, Dean, Kyl has almost $2M in the bank. With brighter prospects of gaining seats in Rhode Island and Pennsylvania, and desperate attempts to save seats in Minnesota, Nebraska, Florida, Washington, and other states, look for the Democrats to make like France and pre-emptively surrender in this bright red state.