FEC Reports Wrap Up

The Hotline reports on third quarter fundraising with a complete summary of the important numbers. These are the most significant stories.

Illinois' third Senator is definitely running for President. Surely this surprises no one. Even so, her incredible fundraising puts the record-breaking President to shame. Clinton has nearly $14M in the bank. With Jeanine Pirro's recent missteps, that could be enough to finance Clinton's Senate campaign even with the several media markets in the state. If her fundraising holds true, she could end up with a $60M jump on the rest of the Democrat Primary field in 2008. That could leave likely candidates such as Kerry and Edwards scratching their heads about whether their climb is just too steep.
Orrin Hatch is Safe. The big news here is not so much that the Democrats would jump at a snowball's chance in hell, but that what could have been an interesting primary won't be. Challenger Steve Urquhart finished the quarter with less than $4000 on hand and raised just over $8000. So anemic is his fundraising that had his parents maxed out on contributions, he'd have more money than he does now. His spin is that he has focused on the ground game and will now turn his attention to fundraising. The fact is that this "race" is over.
Florida is a missed opportunity. When Rep. Katherine Harris entered the race, the major advantage to her candidacy - the one major advantage - was that she would be able to raise funds easily. Or so we thought. Harris has less than half a million dollars in the back. Nelson has 13-times that much. He also outraised her by a better than 3:1 margin in the third quarter alone. For challengers, it's not about having as much money as the incumbent, but having enough money to get your message out. Harris doesn't have that.
It's about time to say "Sen. Cardin". One of the best GOP pick-up opportunities was missed as Democrats got smart and have effectively cleared the field for their strongest candidate. Cardin raised over $700,000 in the third quarter and has nearly $1.9M in the bank. The primary challenger most likely to give him trouble, Kweisi Mfume, finished the quarter with less than six figures in the bank. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is a great candidate, but defeating Cardin in Maryland is an extremely tall order.
Lott is about to take up shuffle board. Sen. Trent Lott raised just $26,690 in the third quarter. It is possible that the destruction of his home was simply a distraction from his fundraising. More likely, though, he has made the determination that it's time to move on. Rep. Chip Pickering (R) is his likely successor.
Mudd's Done. Bob Casey, Jr. raised half a million dollars more that Sen. Mudd, bringing his coffers over the $3M mark. Without having done anything, Casey has built an advantage in the high teens and is polling over the 50% mark. The Miers nomination, which some argued was made to appease RINOs like Specter, reinforces the rift that Mudd created with conservatives when he campaigned for Specter. There are also reports that RNC money that had been earmarked for Mudd is now being spent in New Jersey. It's tough to count any incumbent out at this point, but this is about as close as any race to being over.
Conservatives can take a scalp. In Rhode Island, Sen. Lincoln Chafee actually finished fourth in third quarter fundraising. He raised less than half of what Steve Laffey raked in and, after a full term, has slightly less than double the funds of a candidate who has been in the race for just over a month. Help bury Chafee and show the NRSC, which is now running ads against Laffey, that we mean business by contributing whatever you can afford to the Senator-to-be.

There are other stories. As expected Ed Bryant and Rep. Mark Kennedy both turned in very strong quarters. Patty Wetterling's candidacy is hanging on by a thread. And Sen. Maria Cantwell has successfully climbed out of a deep financial hole to likely save her career. While significant, none of this is too surprising. If the fourth quarter is as good for conservatives as the third, the GOP caucus will likely move right whether Republicans gain seats or not.