Steele In: Does It Matter?

Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, an excellent candidate by all accounts, will announce next week that he will seek the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D-MD). Steele is an intelligent, black, fairly conservative politician whose opposition to the death penalty could help him reach out to voters who traditionally vote Democrat. If a conservative can win in Maryland, it's Michael Steele.

Unfortunately, though, his prospects are dim. By any account, the environment is not favorable for Republicans. Scandals, real and fabricated, have damaged Republican chances nationwide. Last year, the President carried the Catholic vote in Maryland thanks in no small part to the efforts of the Maryland Catholic Conference reminding Catholics to vote their values. Regardless of how good of a job the Conference does, that becomes a very tough sell after the Miers nomination. Maryland Catholics, by and large, are not economic conservatives, so if the Miers nomination makes values a wash, it is highly unlikely that Steele will be able to maintain that advantage.

Further, the third quarter fundraising reports show Rep. Ben Cardin, the Democrats' strongest candidate, leading the way with nearly $2M on hand. His chief rival, Kweisi Mfume, comes in well behind the second-tier candidates, reporting less than $100,000 on hand even though he was the first candidate to declare his candidacy. Mfume could've been a very strong primary candidate by driving up black turnout in Baltimore. At this rate, he'll be lucky if he can afford bus fare to get to the polls himself.

Had Steele faced the racist Mfume in the general election, he would have had an excellent chance of routing Mfume among whites while neutralizing the Democrat's advantage among blacks. While Steele may still do relatively well among blacks, there is nothing extraordinary about Cardin that would cause him to underperform among blacks. He also won't scare white voters as Mfume would have. If Steele were running in almost any other state, he would have an excellent chance of winning. Unfortunately, though, Maryland is Maryland. The President's approval rating in the state is an abysmal 33%, and Democrats will be extremely eager to nationalize the race. Maryland's proximity to Washington will make it easy for Cardin to attract Democrat allies to the state early and often. By contrast, Steele will want to avoid the GOP heavy-hitters at all costs, something that is not easy to do when much of the state is in the Washington, DC media market. This race is "Likely Democrat" verging on "Safe Democrat". Unless the national scene changes dramatically before next November, it is exceedingly difficult to see Steele pulling off the upset.