Opportunity Knocks: Bouchard Back In

After entering and leaving the Michigan Senate race earlier this year, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard has reentered the race, having dealt with the health issues that forced him out of the race earlier this year. This comes as good news, as reverends Keith Butler and Jerry Zandstra have struggled to catch fire. Recent polls show both trailing Stabenow by 20+ points.

Bouchard's candidacy will be an uphill battle. Butler and Zandstra have been campaigning for almost a year, and Butler in particular has a small but loyal following. More significantly, Stabenow has been raising money at a fierce pace, finishing the third quarter with over $4.7 million. Bouchard also has some name recognition problems as well, and getting in this late makes that problem difficult to solve.

On the positive side, Bouchard has political experience, having been elected to both houses of the state legislature before being elected county sheriff. With establishment backing and political connections, he should have better luck raising money than the other two Republicans. He has also established conservative credentials, with a voting record to back it up, that will serve him well if he is able to raise enough money to get that message out. Finally, having been elected in Oakland County he could perform well in an area that has been trending blue in recent elections.

Bouchard enters late and has a steep hill to climb. Even so, he likely offers us our best chance to take down the vulnerable Stabenow. This race is somewhere between "Lean Democrat" and "Likely Democrat". If Bouchard has a good fourth quarter fundraising, this one could get very interesting. If not, it could just as easily get very ugly.