New Nominee? '06 Republicans Hope So

Yesterday morning, Erick posted over at ConfirmThem that the White House is asking outsiders to come up with a new list of nominees. Catholic lure says that the Pope isn't sick until he's dead. The same can be said of political candidates or nominees. When sources close to a candidate say that he is "reevaluating", it means he's dropping out. When sources close to a nominee say, "We're not going to yank her nomination, but if we did...", it's all over. It is no secret that I oppose the Miers nomination. What is less readily visible is that several Republican who have not said so publicly do as well.

No fewer than eleven Senate races could hinge on whether the White House withdraws Miers in favor of, oh, let's just say, someone in the mold of Scalia and Thomas. Incumbents Conrad Burns, Mike DeWine, Jon Kyl, Samuel Mudd, and Jim Talent will all need strong turnout among a base that supports the GOP largely because of the judiciary. Ed Bryant, Gale Catlett/Betty Ireland, Rep. Katherine Harris, Rep. Mark Kennedy, Rep. Chip Pickering (?), and Pete Ricketts will all need rallying points. The second coming of Sandra Day O'Connor would, to the contrary, tell those very people that elections don't matter.

Sen. DeWine is especially interested in withdrawal, as he came under heavy fire for participating in the unprincipled Gang of 14 agreement. Should Miers be confirmed, which is now about as likely as Wyoming winning the Rose Bowl, DeWine would be singled out for his participation, which many, including me, would argue led to this terrible nomination. If conservatives were to stay home in droves, as they did with the House special election earlier this year, DeWine's career will be over. The Ohio seat is critical to the Democrats' attempts to take back the Senate.

So, the White House much choose: does it energize the base by withdrawing Miers, going to war with the Democrats over a good nominee and winning, thus entering the 2006 elections with momentum and a wedge issue on which the voters side with the GOP? Or does it instead push forward with the Miers nomination, go to war with its own Party, see Miers defeated in humiliating fashion, become a lame duck early, and potentially lose the Senate Majority next year? The decision is in the President's hands. Fortunately, it now appears that he has chosen the former.